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▸why did MU drop 8% today?
answered by why_moved — one of eight research tools
MU$958.20−8.2%pre-market print · 09:12 ET
Beta explains part of it. These bars are the part it doesn’t.
vs SPYthe whole market · β 1.62 · R² 0.41
explained-2.1%
residual-6.1%
z = -2.8 — outside normal noise for this pair
vs SMHsemis · β 1.18 · R² 0.63
explained-2.8%
residual-5.4%
z = -2.5 — outside normal noise for this pair
catalystMicron guides Q4 gross margin below consensus on HBM pricing — 07:02 ET
single-name The sector fell 2.4%; Micron fell three times that. This one is its own story.
SMH-2.4%
XLK-1.6%
IGV-1.1%
XLC-0.7%
XLY-0.5%
XLI-0.1%
XLF+0.2%
XLB+0.3%
XLE+0.6%
XLV+0.9%
XLP+1.1%
XLU+1.4%
−2.5%+2.5%
breadth 6 of 12 updispersion 3.8pplead–lag semis → software, p=0.03
rotation Money is moving down the risk curve, not out of it — utilities and staples are bid while semis lead the downside. That is a rate trade, not a growth scare.
AMD82.3×EV / EBITDA, trailing twelve months
9.9× cheapest48.2× median152.3× dearest
83rd percentile of the range AMD itself has traded over five years. Never against another name — 25× for software and 6× for a retailer compare nothing.
EV+185%=EBITDA+76%×re-rating+62%
exact, not approximate Enterprise value nearly tripled in a year. The business earned 76% more, and the market decided to pay 62% more for each dollar of it — the two multiply out to the whole move, with nothing left over to hand-wave.
10Y real yield DFII101.92%restrictive, easing
10Y breakeven T10YIE2.31%anchored
HY–IG spread OAS2.64%no stress priced
VIX / VIX3M ratio0.86contango — calm
Fed, December meetingPolymarket · 30d
25bp cut 61%hold 27%50bp cut 12%
tripwire Real yields through 2.10% and the defensive bid stops being a rate trade. That is the line the morning read is written against.
MU$958.20−8.2%pre-market print · 09:12 ET
Beta explains part of it. These bars are the part it doesn’t.
vs SPYthe whole market · β 1.62 · R² 0.41
explained-2.1%
residual-6.1%
z = -2.8 — outside normal noise for this pair
vs SMHsemis · β 1.18 · R² 0.63
explained-2.8%
residual-5.4%
z = -2.5 — outside normal noise for this pair
catalystMicron guides Q4 gross margin below consensus on HBM pricing — 07:02 ET
single-name The sector fell 2.4%; Micron fell three times that. This one is its own story.
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What it refuses to tell you
Market tools fail by being confidently wrong. Every rule below was bought with a real error.
Own history onlyA valuation multiple is ranked against the same name’s own five-year range — never against another company’s. 25× for software and 6× for a retailer compare nothing.
Fake bargains die firstA stale share count once made a $156bn company screen as a $6.6bn bargain. Catching that before you see it is most of the engineering.
Provenance on every printEach quote says which session it came from and when the exchange stamped it. A delayed print is labelled delayed, not dressed up as live.
A blank cell is an answerA bank’s EBITDA arithmetic works and means nothing, so we return nothing. No number beats a confident wrong one.
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